The UK is in the midst of one of the biggest commercial disruptions it has ever faced. The schism caused from technological revolutions, governmental disruptions, and commercial instability has created a future of unprecedented uncertainty.

Few industries are feeling this shift quite so keenly as the freight industry. The UK logistics sector is critical to the economy, employing approximately 300,000 HGV drivers. Road transport accounts for 81% of all freight moved in the UK, making it essential for the smooth transition of supply chains.

However, in a post-COVID-19 and Brexit world, the HGV driver shortage has reached critical levels in the UK. A report from RHA forecasts that the UK needs 40,000 new HGV annually for the next 5 years in order to meet demand, and prevent future shortages.

The strain of this shortage is already being felt globally. In 2024, the UK, Europe, and Norway faced a shortfall of over 233,000 truck drivers. Added to this is the fact that the average age of the European truck driver population average 47 years old. With over one-third of truck drivers expected to retire in the next 10 years, the need for change has never been more prevalent.

With so much uncertainty afoot, it is important to look forward and understand which way the tide is turning. So in this article, we will look at the 5 big shifts we can see today. Keep reading to learn more…

Shift 1: the zero-emission mandate

The clearest indicator for the future of the industry comes from legislative and market direction. HGVs need to be progressively decarbonised.

For drivers, this means a change to the vehicle beneath them, the maintenance regimes, the planning of journeys and, in time, the very economics of haulage operations themselves.

Vehicle technology

The UK government has established a phased end to new diesel HGV sales. For vehicles up to 26 tonnes, the sale of new, non-zero-emission models is due to end by 2035, and by 2040 the requirement extends to all new HGVs.

While these policies were established under the Sunak Conservative government, at time of writing, there have been no amendments or retractions to these phased requirements, indicating a consensus that environmentally-friendly alternatives are the mainstay going forward.

Those milestones send an unmistakable signal that manufacturers, fleet operators and leasing companies need to accelerate procurement plans, test technology options and rethink whole-life cost models for vehicles and drivers.

This transition will not be a single-technology story.

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have made the earliest commercial advancements for short-haul and urban work where range demands are predictable and depot charging is feasible. Yet as a long-haul solution, they fall short.

Instead, this mantle will likely be taken by hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs), which presents a promising alternative for the heaviest, longest-range missions because they offer faster refuelling and a higher energy density for gross vehicle mass.

Expect the market to evolve into a heterogeneous mix of diesel for legacy fleets, BEVs for urban and regional tasks, and hydrogen (or other clean fuels) for the heaviest long-distance movements, at least during the transitional window.

This change is already underway. Major UK operators, such as Tesco and Amazon, have already introduced full electric, 37-tonne articulated vehicles for short-haul routes of around 100 miles around the UK.

This practical deployment demonstrates what is already possible for certain duty cycles, and manufacturers are learning fast.

Infrastructure

However, this will not be a smooth transition. One of the biggest blockers for widespread adoption falls on the shoulders of infrastructure.

Depot charging, high-capacity public chargers, and hydrogen refuelling stations are unevenly distributed, with adoption rates slower than desired.

Charge times and charger availability dictate duty patterns, turnaround time, and range planning in ways not associated with diesel. 

For the driver used to efficient, straightforward forecourt visits, the need to align breaks with charging or refuelling points will become a new operational habit.

Operators must map duty cycles against realistic charging windows, and invest in depot electrification or fuel supply. For many enterprises, this is a steep capital and logistical challenge that they will have to overcome.

Total-cost-of-ownership

Of course, all these changes will not come cheap.

Upfront purchase prices for electric and hydrogen trucks currently sit well above their diesel counterparts, and the market prices for a new electric HGV typically run into the mid-to-high six figures, while a new diesel tractor unit remains substantially cheaper. 

But total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) calculations, which factor in fuel or energy cost per kilometre, maintenance, uptime and residual values, can narrow that gap. 

Where duty cycles permit high utilisation and depot charging, TCO parity is achievable sooner. However, where routes are long, dispersed or unpredictable, the TCO case is harder without widespread infrastructure and operational redesign.

This may see greater numbers of seasoned drivers and businesses flocking to routes where they stand to recoup the most against that steep upfront cost.

Maintenance

This change will not just be felt by those behind the wheel. 

Electric drivetrains and hydrogen systems change the maintenance profile of vehicles. There are fewer moving parts in an electric powertrain, which can reduce routine mechanical breakdowns, and unexpected costs from unforeseen issues.

But it introduces the requirement of high-voltage systems knowledge, battery management expertise and new diagnostic routines - something many established mechanics and engineers have little experience in. Expect an influx in knowledge acquisition as garages and drivers alike learn to understand these new systems.

Drivers will increasingly be expected to perform pre‑shift checks that are specific to battery state‑of‑charge, thermal management and other electrified-vehicle concerns. 

Communication with remote diagnostic and fleet-monitoring teams will grow more routine, and basic electrical safety awareness for drivers will become part of standard training curricula.

Economic support

With many blockers in the way of progress, widespread adoption will fall down to two options: the carrot or the stick.

The hard deadlines set in place will push some to make the leap, but for many drivers and businesses unable to transition as efficiently as the government would like, incentives will be required.

Thankfully, public grants and demonstration programmes are smoothing the pathway. Incentives such as the UK government’s ‘Plug-in Van and Truck Grant’ are helping to provide healthy discounts on trucks to encourage sales.

Similarly, the ‘Depot Charging Scheme’ aims to support fleet operators on the cost of installing charging infrastructure for eclectic HGVs at fleet depots.

Operators should monitor these incentives closely because they will influence fleet replacement strategies and training investments, which in turn shape drivers’ day-to-day experience.

What to prepare for now

Drivers should expect incremental change rather than overnight disruption. 

Urban and regional runs will feel the earliest impact as electric trucks proliferate on short, repeatable routes. Long-haul drivers will see slower turnover until infrastructure and hydrogen refuelling networks become more reliable. 

Regardless of vehicle type, there will be a steady rise in digital tools in the cab and a growing expectation for basic electrical safety and energy‑management literacy.

Operators who upskill drivers early, participate in trials, and communicate clearly about duty changes will secure better outcomes. 

Drivers who take the initiative to understand BEV and FCEV fundamentals, telematics workflows and new pre‑trip checks will find themselves more employable and less disrupted by change.

Shift 2: automation and digitalisation

In recent years, there has been no escaping the rising tide of artificial intelligence. While the widespread adoption and excitement surrounding this innovative new technology is starting to cool slightly, it is clear that AI will have a lasting impact.

Automation and digitalisation are reshaping what it means to be a truck driver. The lone road warrior of bygone years will coexist with new roles that emphasise oversight, systems management, and technical literacy.

These changes will not arrive overnight. Instead, they will layer on top of existing skills, creating hybrid jobs where human judgement remains central even as machines take on repetitive or high-workload tasks.

A realistic timeline for autonomy

That’s not to say that the role of the truck driver is dying out, or soon to be replaced by autonomous entities. Truck drivers have heard that autonomous trucks are 5-10 years away for the past 20 years, so what is a more realistic timeline for this shift?

The fact is, full, unsupervised autonomy for heavy goods vehicles still remains a long-term prospect. 

Current technology progress points to staged deployment aimed at countering the steady decline in this workforce: driver-assist features, HGV platooning (already in real-world trials), supervised autonomous zones and gradually expanding pilot corridors.

While it is impossible to put a firm deadline on this adoption, it is clear that this once hypothetical option is fast becoming a reality.

In the UK, regulatory frameworks and pilot programmes are accelerating, pushing trials into controlled environments and designated routes. Expect a patchwork landscape over the next decade, where autonomy is present in small pockets rather than across the whole national network.

Drivers should expect to encounter increasing levels of electronic assistance before true autonomy arrives. Adaptive cruise control, lane-keeping, collision avoidance and automated emergency braking will become standard across more vehicles, reducing acute risk but increasing the importance of supervising systems.

Supervised autonomy

Platooning is an immediate, near-term application with clear operational benefits. 

Vehicles travel in tightly coupled convoys using vehicle-to-vehicle communications to maintain close headways, thus reducing drag and saving fuel. In a platoon, only the lead vehicle may require a full human driver, while trailing units are monitored.

Trailing drivers will shift roles from active steering to supervising automated control systems, ready to take manual control when safety or route complexity demands it. These sustained periods of supervision may indue greater levels of fatigue when compared with continuous manual driving, leading to greater needs to prioritise health (more on that later).

Additionally, drivers will need to understand vehicle-to-vehicle protocols, emergency takeover procedures and the limitations of automation systems.

Platooning will likely be most effective on motorways and long-distance corridors, where a degree of predictability is greater. Once it has proved its efficacy here, it will extend into mixed traffic.

Automation shifts the conversation of liability, rather than removing it as some may hope. 

Systems can fail, sensors can misinterpret complex environments, and software can be vulnerable to cyber-risk, which means that human operators remain essential for choices and behaviour the automation cannot reliably mimic.

Situational awareness remains the critical component it always was. Automation brings with it the issue of complacency, lulling supervisors into dangerous situations.

Liability frameworks will need to evolve to clarify exactly when human drivers, fleet operators or manufacturers are accountable for automation incidents. Drivers should be briefed on legal changes and their implications for reporting and incident response.

The human advantage

Despite the myriad technological advances, human judgement remains the industry’s most valuable asset. 

The contextual awareness, nuanced decision-making, and on-the-spot problem-solving skills that drivers bring to the role will be difficult to automate. Rather than erase the contribution of humans, the transition to automation will encourage it.

As the onus of vehicle control steadily shifts away from the driver, a greater focus will be put on the operational side of driving, with new skill sets to learn. This will likely see a number of key roles emerge (names subject to change, of course):

• Logistics Pilot - a driver who supervises a convoy or autonomous platoon from the cab or remotely, takes control when required, and manages complex decision points such as urban ingress or emergency manoeuvres.

• Remote Controller - an operator working from a control centre who intervenes with vehicles in low‑likelihood but high‑impact situations, handles handoffs between autonomous zones and routes, and troubleshoots system alerts.

• Digital Technician - a driver with enhanced diagnostics skills who manages telematics, runs basic software updates, interprets fleet analytics, and performs electric/hydrogen system checks.

These roles, while markedly different to what has come before, show that decision-making will always be a predominantly human role.

The rapid scale of change will bring with it a demand for measurable competence in digital skills.

New training modules will be integrated into Driver CPC and other certification routes covering automation oversight, telematics usage and high-voltage safety where applicable.

Simulated training environments will need to be created that enable drivers to practise supervised autonomy, emergency takeovers and platoon management without the risks of real-world training.

The emergence of micro-credentials seems likely, enabling a fast career progression for roles such as remote controller or digital technician, without full role changes that will leave existing roles to suffer the issues of existing shortages.

Employers who invest in structured upskilling will gain the operational resilience. Drivers proactively acquiring these skills will be in the forefront position to expand their career options in a market where digital competence is scarce.

As with other industries already champing at the bit to integrate AI into their businesses, the companies that will stand out will be those that treat their employees as part of the solution, not the problem.

What to prepare for now

The transition to automation will be nuanced. While widespread adoption will take many years to actualise, there are steps drivers can take to ease the transition.

The focus here will be on learning core digital skills. Drivers should familiarise themselves with telematics apps and remote diagnostics. 

Where possible, they should take available simulation or CPC modules on automation oversight, and practise manual skills regularly to stay sharp. 

When changes come, those ready to step in will be the first to succeed.

Shift 3: the changing route profile

The geography of freight is being discreetly rewritten.

Delivery expectations born of e‑commerce, tighter urban regulations, and a partial reshoring of manufacturing are altering where goods move and how they arrive. 

For drivers, this changes the rhythm of a working day, the vehicle beneath the cab and the skills that employers deem valuable.

The transition to urban and regional work

Urban and regional work is seeing a boom of growth. 

As consumers want speed, precision, and convenience above all else, this change favours shorter, repeatable routes and a denser network of distribution nodes rather than long single-leg hauls.

Meanwhile, ports, intermodal terminals and bulk corridors will continue to sustain long-distance demand, producing a more complex, mixed network in which different route types coexist and interlock.

Drivers moving into last‑mile and regional roles will see their days structured very differently from traditional trunking. 

Where motorway work has meant long, steady kilometres and infrequent stops, last‑mile driving requires constant manoeuvring, repeated reversing, timed delivery windows, and frequent customer contact.

This intensification changes physical and cognitive workload, reducing uninterrupted driving time, while increasing the number of high-attention micro‑tasks per hour.

The green city shift

As cities grow evermore populated, issues around air quality and congestion arise. The answer is Low Emission Zones and pedestrianisation schemes that force operators to rethink fleet composition and termination points for long-distance runs.

An example of this can be seen in the Direct Vision Standard and new Progressive Safe System that came into effect in London in 2024. This change required truck drivers to implement DVS system kits in order to operate within the city - a costly addition to the already expensive challenge of inter-city transport.

In practice, most long-haul consignments now terminate at consolidation hubs on the urban fringe, with the final leg completed by smaller zero‑emission vehicles, cargo bikes, or even foot couriers.

That handover model preserves the economics of larger trucks on trunk routes while meeting city requirements and consumer expectations for lower-emission last-mile deliveries.

This change will continue to impact operational models in urban logistics, already seen in London and other major UK cities. 

Micro‑hubs and consolidation centres facilitate dense multi‑drop rounds from smaller vehicles, enabling the creation of off‑peak and night delivery windows to reduce daytime congestion. Automated parcel lockers reduce failed-delivery interactions while increasing the need for efficient locker routing and scanning. 

These innovations change where drivers hand cargo over, who they interact with and how performance is measured.

The demand for long-haul

But the route profile is not a one-way shift away from long distance. 

Demand for intermodal, port-related and cross-border freight remains as important as ever. Long-haul driving will persist where volumes, geography, and customer needs require it, and those roles will increasingly intersect with electrification, platooning and tighter telematics-based planning.

The dual reality of these two routes means more opportunities for regional and urban logistics. This is coupled with persistent long-distance niches that demand higher compliance, advanced planning and exposure to new vehicle technologies.

The occupational trade-offs between the two are clear to see. Last‑mile driving increases exposure to pedestrian-rich environments and manual handling injuries, and it demands frequent high-attention tasks. Long‑haul work concentrates the risks of prolonged sedentary time and fatigue. Balancing work and wellbeing will continue to be an ongoing challenge.

What to prepare for now

Much of the changes outlined in this shift are already in motion, and will only continue to dominate. 

For drivers operating in urban environments, a familiarity with the electric vehicles will be the biggest challenge. 

As time management becomes more granular, success will depend on micro‑scheduling, punctuality and efficient use of handheld delivery platforms, those able to adopt this stringent approach will see greater gains.

Shift 4: welfare and well-being

While many of the changes outlined in this article detail a great shift away from the traditional ways, there are some positive outcomes forecast too.

The traditional image of the truck driver has long been one of endurance at the margins. Long hours, isolated cabs, roadside stops that are functional at best and squalid at worst. That picture is changing because the industry can no longer tolerate the human costs of neglect. 

Retention, recruitment and public acceptability all hinge on treating driver welfare as a priority rather than a compliance box.

The argument is simple and stark. Poor facilities and a working life defined by long sedentary hours, disrupted sleep and limited access to healthy food create a health burden that shortens careers and lives.

Health outcomes for drivers are poor compared with many other occupations. The job’s prolonged sitting time, disrupted circadian rhythms, limited opportunity for exercise and the temptation of convenience food produce elevated rates of obesity, type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. 

These are not abstract statistics. They translate into days lost, medical intervention, and shortened working lifespans. A practical response recognises that drivers’ health is shaped by the environment they are forced to work in. Make that environment healthier and the statistics follow.

Welfare changes

Welfare is now visible on policy agendas and in industry programmes. 

Recent investments have targeted the physical infrastructure of truck stops, implementing showers, secure parking, food outlets, and sleeping facilities. 

But the conversation has rightly broadened to include mental health, occupational health screening, and the behavioural nudges that make healthier choices easier for drivers.

Programmes that have succeeded share a few common features. They are:

• Co-designed with drivers so that interventions fit real duty patterns

• Short, practical, and modular so drivers can complete them during a shift or as short training modules

• Provide measurable, incremental targets, such as steps per day, sitting time reductions, achievable nutrition changes

• Connected to health to employability and earnings

These are not gimmicks. Behavioural science shows that small, consistent changes, such as an extra 1,000 steps a day, replacing a sugary snack with a protein-based option, squatting series during fuel stops, compound into measurable health gains. 

When drivers see employers investing in facilities and programmes, it signals respect and raises morale. That in turn feeds recruitment messaging. A career in haulage that offers real welfare support is easier to sell to younger candidates and diverse applicants, in turn easing the burden of driver shortages.

Improving welfare has macro-level benefits. Funders, insurers, and public procurement bodies are increasingly likely to favour operators who can evidence responsible employment practices, including comprehensive welfare provision, thus protecting their investments.

For operators, the shift is to treat welfare capital investments as strategic infrastructure. 

For policymakers, the lesson is to align funding with programmes that drivers will actually use and to ensure facilities are part of wider route planning and network resilience strategies.

Mental health

Mental health is an equally important facet of welfare. 

The inherent isolation, unpredictability, and pressure of the job can easily bring on anxiety, depression, and burnout in drivers. While networks and helplines exist, leaving the onus on the driver leaves many in silence on the serious matter. 

Here, organisations will need to build a culture of check-ins, and normalise those conversations around stress and mental health to support drivers before the problems escalate. Peer-support networks, confidential helplines, and company-level mental health provision can further reduce stigma and provide routes to early help. 

Regulation and public policy have a role to play, but the pace of change will be determined in the workplace.

Employers will be faced with a choice. Either they invest in their drivers and benefit from the retention of a reliable workforce, or they double down and suffer the mass exodus of staff as they seek employment with companies that see welfare as an investment.

What to prepare for now

Improving the everyday reality of life on the road is arguably the most human-centred lever the industry has to secure its workforce for the long term. It is also one of the most immediate. 

Unlike some of the technological shifts under way, welfare improvements can begin today and produce measurable benefits within months rather than years.

On the roads, changes in the benefits to drivers will be gradual, but apparent. Rest and break patterns will be redesigned to align with health objectives rather than purely logistical convenience, with enforced minimum rest quality standards where possible.

Technology will be used to nudge healthier behaviour. Apps that prompt stretch breaks, gamified step-count challenges across a fleet, and telehealth consultations accessed from cab tablets will provide greater opportunities for drivers to improve their wellbeing.

Where uncertainty will arise will be in the hands of the employers, who will increasingly incorporate health metrics into fleet performance dashboards, tracking indicators such as sick-days, and engagement with health programmes. 

Those willing to invest in their operators will see the greatest benefits early on, while those who ignore it will risk their business.

Shift 5: pay and status

The sector’s long‑term resilience will hinge on turning driving from a placeholder job into a credible career.

Public opinion has shifted dramatically since the end of the 20th century. Gone are the days when the life of the trucker was romanticised as the lone wolf, hardworking hero. Unfair stereotypes, often due to media misinterpretation of the industry, have shifted perceptions away from the reality. 

The 2024 Transport Focus survey found that pay and status accounted for collectively nearly 20% of driver’s top concerns with the role. Without confronting these issues head on, the workforce will only continue to shrink.

Pay and training

Higher pay is necessary, but alone it is insufficient. 

Lasting change requires an approach that combines wages with clear career pathways, transferable skills, improved working conditions, and a sustained effort to change public perception. 

Raising average wages to make driving competitive with alternative occupations will materially increase operators’ expenses. That additional cost cannot be absorbed indefinitely by marginal carriers. It must be reconciled through productivity gains, smarter contracting and a willingness among customers to recognise the real price of resilience. 

Investment in telematics, route optimisation and depot automation can raise throughput per driver and help offset wage increases, but those technologies must be deployed to enhance job quality and unlock progression rather than simply eliminate roles.

Pay reforms work best when accompanied by the recognition of skill, responsibility and unsocial hours. 

Benefits that matter in practice - reliable sick pay, pension enhancements, subsidised licence acquisition and paid training time - show that an employer values long‑term retention over short‑term cost-cutting.

Professionalisation depends on training architecture that makes skills portable. 

Modular, stackable qualifications that certify competence in electrified vehicle operation, digital fleet systems or last‑mile specialisms will allow drivers to build a portfolio of credentials that travel with them between employers. 

Apprenticeships and training schemes will reduce the barrier to entry for potential new recruits and provide structured pathways for career development. 

Micro‑credentials and short, recognised modules embedded in Driver CPC can help convert day‑to‑day skills into measurable career capital.

Perception

Changing public and industry attitudes is at least as important as improving contract terms. 

The narrative around driving needs to emphasise the technical competence, safety leadership and essential service provision that is intrinsically linked to the profession of truck driving. 

Efforts to broaden the candidate pool will make recruitment campaigns more effective and reduce systemic vulnerability. For example, part‑time roles, flexible scheduling and active outreach to women and younger people helps to shed the idea that the role is a “man’s game”.

Policy levers will need to accelerate change where markets struggle. 

Subsidised licence schemes targeted at specific groups of individuals, procurement practices that include social‑value scoring, and public funding for training and welfare infrastructure pull the market towards higher baseline standards. 

Where public contracts factor in labour quality and welfare outcomes, better employers are rewarded and poor‑practice operators find it harder to undercut.

Most importantly, the sector must link pay uplift to durability. Higher wages should sit alongside predictable rosters, meaningful rest arrangements and credible progression routes. 

In isolation, pay increases can simply trade higher churn for higher nominal pay. Combined with better job design and career clarity, they become the foundation of a professional, resilient workforce.

What to prepare for now

The change will be a group effort. 

Employers will need to combine wage increases with transparent skill‑based pay, reliable benefits and predictable hours to improve retention. Training should be modular and portable, turning everyday competencies into recognised credentials.

Policy and procurement should reward employers who invest in pay, welfare and training, shifting market incentives toward quality.

Change is coming

The future is uncertain. Ten years ago, the idea that everyone would have artificial intelligence at their disposal seemed equal parts inevitable and inconceivable. Yet here it is, and with the unending wave of technological advancements comes myriad change.

Those who will survive change are those who adapt and react. For drivers, this will come in a fundamental shift from the preconceived norm, yet all signs point towards a future that still puts enormous value on the expertise they bring to the table.

Studying changing rules and regulations, training up in emerging technologies, and aligning with companies that are campaigning for better conditions will position drivers in the best situation to stay ahead of the curve.

Find more insights, news, and information in the truck industry at our Truckstop Group News Page.

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